Real-time directional estimate vs. USDA Feb 2026 baseline ($153.4B)
Proxy Net Farm Income 2026
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Live Commodity Prices β Receipt Impact
Expense Pressure Indicators
π§π· Brazil Soybean Margin Profile
Cepea/ESALQ national indicator + IMEA Mato Grosso cost of production Β· R$/sack (60kg) β USD/bu
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Market Context
Net Farm Income Components
2000β2026F Β· Revenue layers vs. production expenses Β· $ Billions
The green NFI line = total revenue minus expenses. 2022's record $210B was driven by crop receipts ($278B);
2025β26 is increasingly about government payments ($30β44B) and cattle strength offsetting declining crop margins.
Commodity Price History
2014β2026* Β· Annual averages Β· *2026 = current futures
DISCLAIMER: This is an approximate directional proxy, not a precise forecast.
Assumptions: production volumes held constant at USDA 2026F levels; price changes flow proportionally to receipts/expenses;
government payments and "other income" held at USDA baseline; feed costs correlate 60% with corn; fuel costs scale linearly with crude;
fertilizer costs scale with urea; livestock purchase costs track 80% with cattle. Actual NFI depends on weather, yields, trade policy,
acreage shifts, and many other factors not captured here. Source baseline: USDA ERS Feb 5, 2026 release.
π Valmont Industries β Earnings Call Brief
Agriculture Segment Prep
Irrigation Β· Center pivots Β· ~27% of Valmont net sales Β· Exposure: corn, crop margins, farmer capex
World corn stocks-to-use at ~23% is the tightest since 2014/15 β supportive for prices.
U.S. corn S/U at ~13.4% is more comfortable due to the record 2025/26 crop.
Soybean S/U is loose globally (record Brazilian crop) but tight in the U.S.
π Section 2 β Forward Pricing Curves
What the futures market is pricing 6β12 months out Β· Key for forward guidance
Farm economics β irrigation equipment capex Β· Historical correlation with Valmont Ag revenue
Valmont Ag Segment Revenue ($M, Quarterly)
Corn Margin (Total Cost) vs. Valmont NA Irrigation Trend
KEY LINKAGE: Center pivot sales lag farm income by ~4β6 quarters.
Per Valmont 10-K discussion: North American irrigation demand softness in 2024-25 reflects the 2023-24 grain price collapse.
The 2026 corn margin outlook (negative $158/acre total cost basis) suggests continued NA headwind through mid-2027.
International (particularly EMEA, Brazil) and replacement demand are the current offsets.
π€ Section 4 β Likely Analyst Q&A Prep
Anticipated questions with data-backed talking points Β· Click to expand
Generate a clean printable brief the CEO/CFO can use 10 minutes before the call
How the Proxy NFI is Calculated
The proxy starts with the USDA ERS February 2026 baseline forecast of $153.4B net farm income, then adjusts receipts and expenses based on how current commodity and input prices compare to the prices implied by that baseline.
Core Formula:
Proxy NFI = Adj. Cash Receipts + Gov Payments + Other Income β Adj. Prod Expenses